Week 15 Recap: Rally on Ceasefire Hopes, Then Pause

U.S. equities closed positive for the week, snapping a five-week losing streak. The S&P 500 finished Friday, April 10 at 6,816.89, up modestly on the week despite a slight -0.11% dip on Friday itself. The Nasdaq outperformed (+0.35% Friday) on strength in AI-related semiconductors, while the Dow lagged (-0.56%).

The mid-week catalyst: reports of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Markets rallied broadly as oil retreated from intraday highs near $102/bbl to settle around $96.55 (WTI). However, breadth remained narrow. Mega-cap tech (NVDA +2.6%, AMD +3.6%, SMCI +8.8%) carried indices while defensives (Staples -1.4%, Healthcare -1.3%) underperformed.

Geopolitical Uncertainty: Hormuz Remains the Wildcard

Despite the ceasefire, tensions are unresolved. President Trump issued an explicit ultimatum via Truth Social: if Iran does not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz by his Monday deadline, the U.S. Navy will begin blockading the chokepoint and target Iranian infrastructure.

Iran has maintained de facto control of the strait since late February, leveraging its position over ~20% of global seaborne oil. While weekend talks in Pakistan (led by VP Vance) offered a diplomatic off-ramp, both sides remain entrenched on core demands. 

Market impact: Oil remains volatile. Brent crude hovered near $95/bbl Friday. After breakdown in talks it bounced back to over $100 on early Monday trading in Asia, reigniting inflation concerns just as CPI data showed headline inflation at +0.9% MoM in March, driven by energy.

Earnings Season Begins: Quality Is King

Week 16 kicks off Q1 reporting. Key names to watch:

• Goldman Sachs (GS), Citigroup (C): Early reads on trading revenue, credit trends, and Iran-war exposure.
• JPMorgan (JPM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Guidance on net interest margins, consumer resilience.
• Taiwan Semicndctr (TSM), Netflix (NFLX): Late-week sentiment checks on consumer/AI spending.

Management commentary on oil pass-through, supply chain resilience, and capex discipline will matter more than headline beats.

Week 16 Outlook: We chillin'

Bottom line: Uncertainty dominates, but earnings provide anchors.

Strategy: Keep dry powder. Volatility creates entry points, but timing remains elusive. We're looking at two stocks to buy this week. Stay tuned for updates.