Global Stock Market Weekly Summary
Week 22 confirmed what the bond market has been warning about: inflation is sticky, yet equities refuse to blink. The S&P 500 locked in its ninth consecutive weekly gain — the longest streak since 2021 — closing at 7,580.08. The Dow topped 51,000 for the first time, finishing the week up 0.9%, while the Nasdaq led with a 2.4% weekly advance, capping an 8% gain for May. April PCE came in hot at 3.8% headline and 3.3% core, cementing the "no rate cuts" narrative. IBM's $10 billion quantum computing pledge and de-escalation in the Iran–Strait of Hormuz standoff defined the week's key narratives.
Week 22 Recap
United States
Markets were closed Monday for Memorial Day, leaving just four sessions. Wednesday opened cautiously as investors braced for Thursday's PCE release. The data landed: headline PCE rose 3.8% year-over-year (up from 3.5% in March), and core PCE climbed to 3.3% — the largest annual increase in three years. The figures were largely in line with expectations, which paradoxically gave markets comfort. The clarity that rate cuts are off the table this year removed uncertainty, and the S&P 500 rallied through the session.
IBM was the standout corporate story. On Thursday, the company announced plans to invest more than $10 billion in quantum computing over five years, targeting a fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029 with a 200-qubit system. This follows last week's landmark $1 billion CHIPS and Science Act incentive for the Anderon quantum foundry. IBM shares rose 3–4% on the announcement, extending the prior week's 12% surge. Dell Technologies also soared on strong quarterly earnings.
By Friday's close, the S&P 500 had gained 1.4% for the week, the Dow added 0.9%, and the Nasdaq climbed 2.4%. The VIX settled near 17, reflecting persistent complacency despite the inflation picture. The bond market showed modest relief: the 10-year yield eased to 4.45% from the prior week's 4.59%, while the 30-year settled at 4.97%. Oil prices dropped as the U.S. and Iran edged closer to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude falling below $105 per barrel.
Europe
European equities traded in a narrow range but finished May higher. The STOXX 600 closed around 626, gaining roughly 0.14% for the week and 2.4% for the month. The DAX touched 25,389 early in the week on Iran de-escalation optimism before retreating, while the FTSE 100 closed near 10,425. Defense names like Rheinmetall saw some profit-taking, while AkzoNobel surged 20% on a takeover bid. Energy stocks provided support as oil prices remained elevated by historical standards.
Asia-Pacific
Asian markets traded mixed. The Nikkei 225 hit record highs mid-week as the Bank of Japan held steady, but pulled back Friday to close around 59,850. South Korea's Kospi also touched record territory. Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.55% for the week near 25,182, while the Shanghai Composite slipped 0.73%. The mainland–Hong Kong divergence reflected ongoing property headwinds in China versus more constructive sentiment toward tech names benefiting from AI investment flows.
Nobel Select Portfolio Highlights
IBM — Securing Gains in a High-Momentum Run
IBM has been the portfolio's standout performer. After the steep post-earnings sell-off in late April — where shares dropped sharply despite the company beating on revenue, EPS, and free cash flow — we witnessed what we believe was a clear overreaction to the downside. The company reported Q1 2026 revenue of $15.9 billion with 6% growth, 11% software growth, and a 51% surge in IBM Z mainframe revenue. Maintaining full-year guidance was treated as a negative, triggering a 6–7% after-hours decline that snowballed deeper. This was, in our view, a sentiment-driven move disconnected from fundamentals.
The reversal has been equally dramatic — and perhaps equally overextended in the opposite direction. The government's $1 billion CHIPS Act commitment and equity stake in the Anderon quantum foundry, followed this week by IBM's own $10 billion quantum investment pledge, have fueled a massive rebound. The stock has added approximately $26 billion in market capitalization over two weeks and now sits at $297.80 — up 22.8% from our average cost basis of $242.50.
While we remain firmly bullish on IBM's long-term positioning at the intersection of enterprise AI, quantum computing, and government-backed industrial policy, we also recognize that the speed and magnitude of this rebound may be running ahead of near-term fundamentals. The same emotional market mechanics that drove the irrational sell-off are now propelling the rally. We are therefore considering securing our position with a short call strategy on our full 100-share position. This would allow us to lock in a portion of our gains while maintaining our long-term long position. It is worth acknowledging that timing such a move is inherently difficult — you never truly know when an overreaction stops being an overreaction — but the risk-reward of capturing option premium at current elevated volatility levels appears favorable.
Alibaba and Tencent — Undervalued Cash-Flow Generators
Both Alibaba and Tencent continue to generate enormous cash flow and trade at significant discounts to intrinsic value. We are considering adding to these positions depending on market conditions. See our detailed stock analyses for each company in the analysis section.
Other Holdings — Positive Across the Board
Our remaining positions continue to perform in line with or ahead of expectations. Eli Lilly (LLY) hit an all-time high after broader PBM coverage of its obesity drugs was announced, with CVS covering Foundayo from June 2026 — the stock now sits at $1,105, up 21.7% from our cost basis. Rheinmetall (RHM.DE), Alstom (ALO.PA), Alcon (ALC), Ubtech Robotics (9880.HK), and our commodity ETF positions (SLVP, IAUP.L) are all in positive territory. We have no changes planned for these positions at this time.
Week 23 Outlook
Week 23 brings a packed economic calendar headlined by the May jobs report.
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Monday, June 1)
Consensus expects 54.5, up from 52.7 in April. A stronger print would confirm the manufacturing recovery but could add to inflation concerns.
JOLTS Job Openings (Tuesday, June 3)
Labor market tightness remains a key input for the Fed's rate calculus. A stronger reading supports the dollar and pushes back against easing expectations.
ISM Services PMI (Wednesday, June 4)
The services sector continues to drive U.S. economic growth. Any surprise could move markets meaningfully.
Nonfarm Payrolls (Friday, June 5)
The week's marquee release. Consensus ranges from +62K to +115K, with unemployment expected to hold at 4.3%. Given April's sticky PCE, a strong labor market reading would reinforce the "higher for longer" narrative.
Fed Speakers
Multiple officials are scheduled throughout the week. Markets will parse every comment for hints on whether the Committee's hawkish tilt is deepening.
SpaceX IPO Roadshow (begins June 4)
The most anticipated IPO in history begins its investor roadshow, with pricing expected June 11 and Nasdaq debut on June 12 under ticker SPCX. The offering could draw significant capital from other growth names and dominate sentiment.
Iran–U.S. Ceasefire Progress
The 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire awaits final approval. Any breakthrough on the Strait of Hormuz would further relieve oil-driven inflation pressures; any setback could reverse recent gains.
Nobel Select Portfolio Positioning
Our long-term conviction remains positive. The AI investment super-cycle, government-backed industrial policy, and structural technology adoption trends continue to underpin our portfolio. IBM's quantum narrative has been directly validated by the government's equity commitment. Alibaba and Tencent represent what we believe are among the most compelling value opportunities in global markets, with massive cash generation and AI optionality at deeply discounted valuations. We are actively considering tactical adjustments — a short call on IBM and potential position increases in BABA and Tencent — while maintaining our core long-term positioning.